At the heart of the Grazing Risk Monitoring Service is a computer system that gathers weather data from thousands of weather stations sited around the world. For each data feed, weather data is analysed using multiple analytical methods designed to recognise numerous weather patterns. The information is then further processed and aggregated into an overall risk index. It is this index that is presented in the Laminitis App for your chosen location.
This project focuses on utilizing existing research and enhancing it with additional R&D to develop a sophisticated computer model capable of assessing grazing risk based on multiple weather parameters. When you select a location, the model also takes into account the types of grasses native to your region. For example, C3 (Cool Season Grasses) tend to accumulate non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), while C4 (Warm Season Grasses) accumulate starch. In some regions, both grass types coexist, each exerting a dominant influence during different seasons. An increase in NSC or starch levels in grasses can elevate grazing risks.
Throughout the development of our service, we have rigorously tested the predicted grazing risk against confirmed cases of laminitis. Initially, we focused on data collected from across the UK, but as the project has evolved, we have also incorporated cases from various regions around the world. By expanding our data sources globally, we are able to validate and refine our model under a wide range of environmental conditions and grass types. Each case we examine, whether from the UK or abroad, provides valuable insights that help us enhance the sensitivity and accuracy of our predictions. This continuous refinement ensures that our model becomes increasingly reliable in assessing grazing risks in diverse geographical locations.
The following case study is based on a pony that has sadly suffered from laminitis annually. Unfortunately in 2011 it suffered two laminitic episodes, the first time in June and the second in October. Looking at the Laminitis Risk Chart below there are two stress peaks highlighted on the time-line. For this pony it showed signs of laminitis 48 hours after the peak. We have found it usual for a shod horse to show signs at approximately 48 hours after the stress peak and a horse that is barefoot, within 24 hours.
This product has been designed to build awareness amongst horse owners that stressed grass poses an unforeseen risk throughout the year and not just at Spring and Autumn. It is hoped that the Laminitis App will be used as an everyday tool in conjunction with correct animal husbandry as it is important to understand that there are many other factors that can contribute or cause laminitis in horses (e.g. obesity).